There is a continuous increase of in the number of orphans in sub-Saharan Africa UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004
The number of orphans will continue to increase through 2010, although a rise in the availability of antiretroviral therapy could bring the projected figures down.
In Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, more than one in five children will be orphaned UNICEF, UNAIDS et al., 2004.
UNAIDS indicates that the orphan crisis is just starting to unfold. By 2010, the number of orphans will double particularly in countries with the highest HIV rates, such as Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland, where the adult HIV prevalence exceeds 30%. By 2010, 20 million children under the age of 15 will be orphaned. ”But even where HIV prevalence has stabilized or declined, the number of orphans will continue to grow or at least remain high for several years, reflecting the long time lag between HIV infection and death.” UNICEF, 2003.
A study carried out in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa shows that the number of orphans peaks seven to ten years after the height of the epidemic. Given these lag effects, we can expect that the number of orphans will continue to grow until at least 2010 and could stabilize in some countries after 2020 Hunter and Williamson, 1997.
| Acknowledgments |