Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020 - Etard, Jean-François; Vanhems, Philippe; Atlani-Duault, Laëtitia; Ecochard, René (Eurosurveillance, 2020)
Reports from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China identified older age as a predictor of severity and mortality [1]. A retrospective analysis of individual case data from China and elsewhere showed a very strong age gradient in the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) [2]. In France, as at 15 March 2020, people older than 75 years accounted for 20% of the confirmed cases but 79% of the deaths [3]. Cardiovascular diseases, hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the comorbidities most frequently associated with COVID-19, and many patients died of their original comorbidities [4,5]. All these comorbidities are highly common among dependent elderly people housed in institutions. Using simple calculation, we present here the impact of several worst-case scenarios in French institutions.
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